Climate change projections of continental-scale streamflow across the Mississippi River Basin

Abstract A large body of scientific research has demonstrated a changing climate, which affects river flow regimes and extreme flood frequencies magnitudes. The magnitude frequency events are critical importance in the evaluation systems to inform risk reduction under current future conditions. global climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) datasets were used by Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model produce runoff dataset, implementing Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) approach. resulting was then as input Routing Application for Parallel computatIon Discharge (RAPID) routing simulate daily flows within all 1.2 million Mississippi River Basin reaches years 1950 through 2099. This effort analyzed performance models historical time period, comparing with observations at 64 gage locations 16 different models. recurrence interval analysis performed determine 2-, 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, 500-, 1000-year both projected periods, highlighting relative changes predicted into future. Anticipated seasonal monthly average streamflows three periods (1951–2005, 2006–2049, 2050–2099). Results indicate that hydrologic conditions Lower not stationary. Based on considered this study, median shows an 8% increase 100-year return period discharge Vicksburg, Mississippi, although full range varies widely − 11 + 85% change